Aris Saloniki 2-1 AE Larissa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 29 Nov 2025

Aris Saloniki
2-1 HT 1-0
AE Larissa
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2025/2026

Aris Saloniki vs AE Larissa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.82
Over 2.5
38%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.03
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 35% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.95
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.35
X/1
25%
3.95
X/2
10%
11.8
X/X
14%
5.24
2/1
10%
24.85
2/2
6%
10.3
2/X
5%
18.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-6.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
51%
+11.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
49%
-11.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.9pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aris Saloniki v AE Larissa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY AE Larissa EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
1.42/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.22
-6% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.4 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 4.4

Aris Saloniki vs AE Larissa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
3W-2D-1L
AWAY AE Larissa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.24 xG 0.70
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
301 Passes 242
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
26.01.2021 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-0 HT 1-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
02.12.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 0-3 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
11.01.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
28.09.2019 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-3 HT 2-2 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
20.01.2019 AE Larissa AE Larissa 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
02.09.2018 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-0 HT 0-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN

Aris Saloniki 2-1 AE Larissa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
2-1
AWAY AE Larissa
2.82 xG 0.82
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 2
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
456 Passes 201
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 5
19 Crosses 3
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs AE Larissa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki nicked a narrow win over AE Larissa 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aris Saloniki as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 66% of the ball to AE Larissa's 34%, shots finished 18-2, expected goals 2.82 to 0.82 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aris Saloniki's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aris Saloniki had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aris Saloniki and 0.50 for AE Larissa.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs AE Larissa?

Aris Saloniki 2-1 AE Larissa in the Greece - Super League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs AE Larissa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aris Saloniki win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 55%, draw 25%, AE Larissa 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aris Saloniki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aris Saloniki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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