Al Nasr 5-5 Shabab Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UAE - League Cup, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
39%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.67
6+ Goals
12%
7.06
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.61 — our 27% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
11%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-2.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.5pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nasr EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.99/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.71/1.29
-77% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -29%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 81%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
17.9 Crosses 10.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nasr
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.42 xG 1.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
269 Passes 434
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2024 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 2-0 HT 0-0 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAELK
01.05.2024 Al Nasr Al Nasr 4-3 HT 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli BAECK
16.05.2021 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAECK
17.01.2020 Al Nasr Al Nasr 2-1 HT 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli BAELK
07.09.2019 Al Nasr Al Nasr 0-2 HT 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli BAELK
10.10.2015 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAELK
POST-MATCH Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli shared the points in a 5-5 draw. Half-time: 0-2. 10 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 25% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shabab Al Ahli led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Al Nasr and 2.00 for Shabab Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Al Nasr 5-5 Shabab Al Ahli in the UAE - League Cup on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shabab Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Al Nasr 36%, draw 25%, Shabab Al Ahli 39%. The final score 5-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli) ✓ BTTS Yes
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