Sutton United 1-2 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 30 Jan 2024

📅30/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 32% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.62
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
10%
5.23
X/2
9%
5.47
X/X
12%
4.46
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
18%
3.85
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.9pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sutton United EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.19/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.42
-10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
259 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 65%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
18.7 Crosses 16.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sutton United
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.27 xG 0.87
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
176 Passes 286
57% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
03.09.2022 Sutton United Sutton United 2-1 HT 1-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
07.05.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
25.01.2022 Sutton United Sutton United 1-0 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İNTK
18.12.2021 Sutton United Sutton United 1-0 HT 1-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
30.11.2019 Sutton United Sutton United 3-1 HT 1-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sutton United
1-2
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.31 xG 1.52
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
249 Passes 262
68% Pass Accuracy 68%
29 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sutton United vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town squeezed past Sutton United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sutton United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sutton United had 50% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 50%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.31 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sutton United had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sutton United and 0.33 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Sutton United vs Harrogate Town?

Sutton United 1-2 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 30/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sutton United vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sutton United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sutton United 41%, draw 26%, Harrogate Town 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sutton United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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