Baden 1-2 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 30 Jan 2024

Baden
1-2 HT 0-1
Aarau
📅30/01/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2023/2024

Baden vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.02
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
24%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
24%
+4.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-3.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.3pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Baden v Aarau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baden EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 56%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +15%
1.27/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/1.79
+26% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 81%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
22.7 Crosses 15.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Baden vs Aarau Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baden
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Aarau
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.54 xG 1.49
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 10
193 Passes 271
65% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Box Touches 36
17 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.07.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 1-0 Baden Baden İSV2

Baden 1-2 Aarau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baden
1-2
AWAY Aarau
0.82 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 5
343 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Baden vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau edged past Baden 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Baden had 49% of the ball to Aarau's 51%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.82 to 1.43.

What was the final score of Baden vs Aarau?

Baden 1-2 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 30/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baden vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Baden 29%, draw 23%, Aarau 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aarau) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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