Baden 2-1 Wil 1900 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 30 Mar 2024

Baden
2-1 HT 1-1
Wil 1900
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2023/2024

Baden vs Wil 1900 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
44%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+6.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
44%
Away Win
50%
-5.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Baden v Wil 1900 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baden EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Wil 1900 EU Bookmakers 54%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.09/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/0.69
+5% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
18.3 Crosses 11.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.4

Baden vs Wil 1900 Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baden
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Wil 1900
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.69 xG 1.51
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
279 Passes 472
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
27.10.2023 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 0-1 HT 0-1 Baden Baden İSV2
27.08.2023 Baden Baden 0-5 HT 0-1 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 İSV2

Baden 2-1 Wil 1900 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baden
2-1
AWAY Wil 1900
34% Ball Possession 66%
5 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 11
POST-MATCH Baden vs Wil 1900
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baden squeezed past Wil 1900 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Wil 1900 at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Baden had 34% of the ball to Wil 1900's 66%, shots finished 5-17.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Baden and 2.50 for Wil 1900.

What was the final score of Baden vs Wil 1900?

Baden 2-1 Wil 1900 in the Switzerland Challenge League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baden vs Wil 1900?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wil 1900 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Baden 32%, draw 24%, Wil 1900 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Wil 1900), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wil 1900) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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