Mushuc Runa 0-2 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 30 Mar 2024

Mushuc Runa
0-2 HT 0-1
Aucas
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Mushuc Runa vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+2.0pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mushuc Runa v Aucas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +23%
1.20/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.18
-16% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
263 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
19.1 Crosses 14.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.5

Mushuc Runa vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Aucas
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.81 xG 1.31
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
244 Passes 272
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Aucas Aucas 4-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
20.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
09.10.2022 Aucas Aucas 0-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
14.05.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
24.07.2021 Aucas Aucas 1-1 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
20.02.2021 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-3 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1

Mushuc Runa 0-2 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
0-2
AWAY Aucas
1.00 xG 1.31
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
281 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas beat Mushuc Runa 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Aucas found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 48% of the ball to Aucas's 52%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.00 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.50 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Aucas?

Mushuc Runa 0-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 37%, draw 29%, Aucas 33%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Mushuc Runa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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