Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 Nomme JK Kalju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 30 Mar 2024

Parnu JK Vaprus
1-2 HT 1-1
Nomme JK Kalju
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Estonia - Premium League – 2024

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
51%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
21%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+7.4pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.6pp
51%
Away Win
63%
-11.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Parnu JK Vaprus v Nomme JK Kalju — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju EU Bookmakers 67%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -25%
1.50/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.77
+49% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
347 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-1 HT 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
19.08.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-3 HT 0-2 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
06.06.2023 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
16.03.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 HT 0-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
16.09.2022 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 4-0 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
29.07.2022 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 HT 0-3 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1

Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 Nomme JK Kalju — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
1-2
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 13
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nomme JK Kalju nicked a narrow win over Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nomme JK Kalju as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 44% of the ball to Nomme JK Kalju's 56%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nomme JK Kalju led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 2.17 for Nomme JK Kalju.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju?

Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 Nomme JK Kalju in the Estonia - Premium League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nomme JK Kalju win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 23%, draw 26%, Nomme JK Kalju 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) ✗ Under 2.5
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