Celaya 1-1 Tlaxcala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 30 Mar 2024

Celaya
1-1 HT 1-1
Tlaxcala
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2023/2024

Celaya vs Tlaxcala Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.47
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
27%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
64%
-18.4pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.3pp
27%
Away Win
15%
+12.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celaya v Tlaxcala — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.63/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.79
-9% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.5

Celaya vs Tlaxcala Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Tlaxcala
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
The Meetings
31.08.2023 Tlaxcala 1-2 HT 0-2 Celaya Celaya MEK2
04.03.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
18.08.2022 Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
16.02.2022 Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
18.08.2021 Celaya Celaya 3-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
06.03.2021 Celaya Celaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Tlaxcala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya and Tlaxcala couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Celaya at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Celaya and 0.33 for Tlaxcala.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Tlaxcala?

Celaya 1-1 Tlaxcala in the Mexico - Primera A on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Tlaxcala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Celaya 46%, draw 27%, Tlaxcala 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Celaya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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