Wellington Phoenix (K) 0-1 Melbourne City (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 30 Mar 2025

Wellington Phoenix (K)
0-1 HT 0-1
Melbourne City (K)
📅30/03/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
53%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
21%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
22%
+2.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
53%
Away Win
55%
-2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.0pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix (K) v Melbourne City (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K) EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City (K) EU Bookmakers 60%
+62% / +62% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.08/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/0.81
+86% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +148%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
262 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
11.1 Crosses 10.5
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.2

Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K)
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.76 xG 0.97
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
182 Passes 469
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
28.12.2024 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 2-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW
20.01.2024 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 2-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW

Wellington Phoenix (K) 0-1 Melbourne City (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K)
0-1
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
1.48 xG 2.75
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
189 Passes 353
60% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne City (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City (K) edged past Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melbourne City (K) as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix (K) had 41% of the ball to Melbourne City (K)'s 59%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.48 to 2.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne City (K)'s control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Melbourne City (K) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wellington Phoenix (K) and 2.00 for Melbourne City (K).

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Wellington Phoenix (K) 0-1 Melbourne City (K) in the Australia - W-League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix (K) 24%, draw 23%, Melbourne City (K) 53%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City (K)), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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