Mirassol FC 3-2 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 30 Apr 2024

Mirassol FC
3-2 HT 2-0
Ceara
📅30/04/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Mirassol FC vs Ceara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.59
Over 2.5
33%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.03
No
63%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
4.85
6+ Goals
7%
28.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.46 — our 38% vs market 34.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-5.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.0pp
67%
Under 2.5
59%
+7.7pp
33%
Over 2.5
41%
-7.7pp
37%
BTTS Yes
45%
-7.9pp
63%
BTTS No
55%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mirassol FC v Ceara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 29%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.50/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.18
+12% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
16.7 Crosses 15.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.3

Mirassol FC vs Ceara Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirassol FC
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Ceara
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.06 xG 1.55
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
386 Passes 219
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Ceara Ceara 2-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
16.07.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR2

Mirassol FC 3-2 Ceara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirassol FC
3-2
AWAY Ceara
0.77 xG 1.22
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 11
245 Passes 322
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Mirassol FC vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC squeezed past Ceara 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mirassol FC as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mirassol FC had 43% of the ball to Ceara's 57%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 0.77 to 1.22 — on chances, Ceara could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ceara led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mirassol FC and 1.50 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Mirassol FC vs Ceara?

Mirassol FC 3-2 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie B on 30/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirassol FC vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mirassol FC 41%, draw 29%, Ceara 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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