Kitara 1-1 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 30 Apr 2024

Kitara
1-1 HT 1-0
Mbarara City
📅30/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Uganda - Premier League – 2023/2024

Kitara vs Mbarara City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.29
No
53%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.3pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+6.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-6.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+6.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.5pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kitara v Mbarara City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kitara EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 18%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.49/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/2.42
-31% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / -28%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
442 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.0

Kitara vs Mbarara City Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kitara
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 1
The Meetings
20.12.2023 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 Kitara Kitara UGA
POST-MATCH Kitara vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kitara and Mbarara City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Kitara at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

What was the final score of Kitara vs Mbarara City?

Kitara 1-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 30/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kitara vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kitara win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Kitara 57%, draw 22%, Mbarara City 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kitara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kitara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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UGA More Uganda - Premier League
30 Apr 2024
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