CA Penarol 3-0 CA River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 30 Apr 2024

📅30/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.37
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
69%
-16.4pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.9pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+9.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.0pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.56/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.82
-24% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
508 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 193 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
3W-3D-0L
AWAY CA River Plate
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
283 Passes 340
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.10.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-3 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
19.03.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
08.03.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-4 HT 0-3 CA Penarol CA Penarol CON CSA
17.10.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
29.05.2022 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
14.11.2021 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
3-0
AWAY CA River Plate
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs CA River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol cruised past CA River Plate 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (61%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, CA Penarol had 50% of the ball to CA River Plate's 50%, shots finished 14-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for CA Penarol and 0.33 for CA River Plate.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs CA River Plate?

CA Penarol 3-0 CA River Plate in the Uruguay - Premier League on 30/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs CA River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 52%, draw 27%, CA River Plate 21%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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