Los Angeles FC 2-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 30 Apr 2026

Los Angeles FC
2-1 HT 0-0
Toluca
📅30/04/2026 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
CONCACAF Champions League – 2026

Los Angeles FC vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.64
Over 2.5
50%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.7pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.3pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
57%
-7.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
43%
+7.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Los Angeles FC v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Los Angeles FC EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 37%
+50% / +50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.01/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.85
-10% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
11.4 Crosses 14.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.6

Los Angeles FC 2-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Los Angeles FC
2-1
AWAY Toluca
1.28 xG 0.91
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
274 Passes 563
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
22 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Los Angeles FC vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Los Angeles FC squeezed past Toluca 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Los Angeles FC found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Los Angeles FC had 36% of the ball to Toluca's 64%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.28 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Los Angeles FC vs Toluca?

Los Angeles FC 2-1 Toluca in the CONCACAF Champions League on 30/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Los Angeles FC vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Los Angeles FC win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Los Angeles FC 39%, draw 25%, Toluca 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Los Angeles FC), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Los Angeles FC) ✓ BTTS Yes
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