Leones FC 1-1 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 30 May 2026

Leones FC
1-1 HT 1-1
Independiente Medellin
📅30/05/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Colombia - Cup – 2026

Leones FC vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
48%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
48%
Away Win
54%
-6.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leones FC v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones FC EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 58%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.25/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
230 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Leones FC vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones FC
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.18 xG 1.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
334 Passes 396
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 18
8 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.09.2018 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones FC Leones FC KOL
19.03.2018 Leones FC Leones FC 0-2 HT 0-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
POST-MATCH Leones FC vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones FC and Independiente Medellin shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Medellin at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Leones FC and 1.50 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Leones FC vs Independiente Medellin?

Leones FC 1-1 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Cup on 30/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones FC vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Leones FC 28%, draw 24%, Independiente Medellin 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5
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