Paysandu 1-3 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 30 Jul 2024

📅30/07/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.51
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.4pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.6pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.9pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paysandu EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.20/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.08
-27% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
24.0 Crosses 19.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paysandu
1-3
AWAY Novorizontino
1.60 xG 1.80
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
356 Passes 138
80% Pass Accuracy 62%
15 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paysandu vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino got the better of Paysandu 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Paysandu at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paysandu had 66% of the ball to Novorizontino's 34%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.60 to 1.80.

What was the final score of Paysandu vs Novorizontino?

Paysandu 1-3 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 30/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 43%, draw 32%, Novorizontino 25%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Paysandu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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