Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Union Berlin v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals
Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Union Berlin 1-0 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics
Union Berlin edged past St. Pauli 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Berlin as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Union Berlin had 40% of the ball to St. Pauli's 60%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.07 to 0.53.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Union Berlin and 1.00 for St. Pauli.
What was the final score of Union Berlin vs St. Pauli?
Union Berlin 1-0 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs St. Pauli?
Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 46%, draw 27%, St. Pauli 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.