HNK Gorica 2-1 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 30 Aug 2024

📅30/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.25
6+ Goals
9%
21.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.6pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.23/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.65
-9% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
330 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 69%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
20.9 Crosses 15.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sibenik
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.27 xG 1.34
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
261 Passes 331
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 0-4 HT 0-4 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
05.02.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
09.11.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 2-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
02.10.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 1-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
23.07.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
02.04.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
2-1
AWAY Sibenik
0.35 xG 0.91
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 8
253 Passes 388
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
8 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica squeezed past Sibenik 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had HNK Gorica as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 40% of the ball to Sibenik's 60%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.35 to 0.91 — on chances, Sibenik could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.00 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Sibenik?

HNK Gorica 2-1 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 42%, draw 29%, Sibenik 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HNK Gorica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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