Esenler Erokspor 1-2 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 30 Aug 2024

📅30/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.13
6+ Goals
8%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 34% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.79
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
10%
13.7
X/1
14%
5.29
X/2
14%
5.39
X/X
11%
4.25
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
13%
3.88
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+3.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
258 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
Crosses 16.2
Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esenler Erokspor
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
29% Ball Possession 71%
6 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 11
30.10.2019 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 0-2 HT 0-1 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
1-2
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
0.35 xG 1.19
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
320 Passes 338
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gençlerbirliği edged past Esenler Erokspor 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Esenler Erokspor at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 49% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 51%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.35 to 1.19.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Esenler Erokspor 1-2 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - 1st Division on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esenler Erokspor win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 41%, draw 28%, Gençlerbirliği 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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