Madagaskar 2-3 Fas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Championship, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
5.91
Draw
34%
3.54
Away
51%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.51
Over
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.6
No
51%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.24
2-3
38%
1.81
4-5
21%
5.5
6+
5%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
13.0
1/2
4%
33.0
1/X
6%
21.95
X/1
4%
13.0
X/2
30%
3.61
X/X
17%
4.06
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
17%
1.93
2/X
11%
18.45
Value flag · 2/X at 18.45 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
14%
+0.4pp
34%
Draw
25%
+9.1pp
51%
Away Win
60%
-9.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
34%
+14.7pp
51%
BTTS No
66%
-14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Madagaskar EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Fas EU Bookmakers 64%
+74% / +74% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.65/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.44
+147% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / -43%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
256 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
8.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
12.0 Crosses 21.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Madagaskar
2-3
AWAY Fas
0.37 xG 1.06
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 11
264 Passes 330
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
5 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Madagaskar vs Fas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fas nicked a narrow win over Madagaskar 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fas as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Madagaskar had 44% of the ball to Fas's 56%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.37 to 1.06.

What was the final score of Madagaskar vs Fas?

Madagaskar 2-3 Fas in the Afrika Uluslar Championship on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Madagaskar vs Fas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fas win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Madagaskar 15%, draw 34%, Fas 51%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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