Bournemouth 3-1 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.71
2-3 Goals
36%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
7.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.9
X/1
20%
3.89
X/2
11%
11.45
X/X
11%
6.42
2/1
6%
20.45
2/2
8%
8.22
2/X
6%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.8pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 21%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -18%
2.14/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.62
-9% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
41.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
33.1 Crosses 17.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Southampton
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.85 xG 1.68
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
274 Passes 376
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.07.2023 Southampton Southampton 2-3 Bournemouth Bournemouth HAZ
27.04.2023 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
19.10.2022 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
20.03.2021 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-3 HT 0-2 Southampton Southampton FAK
19.07.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-2 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
20.09.2019 Southampton Southampton 1-3 HT 0-2 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
3-1
AWAY Southampton
1.37 xG 0.60
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 499
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
27 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth saw off Southampton 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bournemouth as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Bournemouth had 40% of the ball to Southampton's 60%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.37 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bournemouth and 1.50 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Southampton?

Bournemouth 3-1 Southampton in the England - Premier League on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 51%, draw 24%, Southampton 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bournemouth), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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