Parma 2-3 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 30 Sep 2024

Parma
2-3 HT 0-1
Cagliari
📅30/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Parma vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
2.68
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
23%
4.61
X/2
9%
7.37
X/X
11%
5.02
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
16%
5.16
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Parma v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.38/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.50
-8% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
16.6 Crosses 22.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Parma vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cagliari
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
373 Passes 326
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.06.2023 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
30.05.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 3-2 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTB
22.04.2023 Parma Parma 2-1 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
03.12.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTB
17.04.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 4-3 HT 1-2 Parma Parma İTA
16.12.2020 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA

Parma 2-3 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
2-3
AWAY Cagliari
2.38 xG 2.38
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
483 Passes 266
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parma vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari nicked a narrow win over Parma 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Cagliari found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Parma had 61% of the ball to Cagliari's 39%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.38 to 2.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cagliari led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Parma and 1.50 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Parma vs Cagliari?

Parma 2-3 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Parma 40%, draw 28%, Cagliari 32%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Parma) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parma) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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