Septemvri Sofia 0-1 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
47%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
21%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-4.1pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.6pp
47%
Away Win
39%
+7.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 43%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
0.24/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.51
-78% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +84%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
322 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Spartak Varna
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.09.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-2 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BULB
31.05.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
24.04.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 2-0 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
0-1
AWAY Spartak Varna
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna squeezed past Septemvri Sofia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spartak Varna as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 55% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 45%, shots finished 6-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Spartak Varna led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.33 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

Septemvri Sofia 0-1 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spartak Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 28%, draw 25%, Spartak Varna 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Varna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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