Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 30 Sep 2024

Cracovia Krakow
1-1 HT 0-1
Stal Mielec
📅30/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
59%
1.9
Over 2.5
41%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.81
No
58%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 33% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.23
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
11%
3.99
X/2
10%
9.35
X/X
10%
4.96
2/1
13%
24.0
2/2
10%
7.31
2/X
11%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.1pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cracovia Krakow v Stal Mielec — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 24%
-16% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.50/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.39
-24% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
25.2 Crosses 15.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cracovia Krakow
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.50 xG 1.08
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
295 Passes 308
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-2 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
22.07.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-2 HT 2-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
17.02.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
05.08.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-0 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
01.04.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-2 HT 0-2 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
02.10.2021 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 3-3 HT 1-3 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL

Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Stal Mielec — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cracovia Krakow
1-1
AWAY Stal Mielec
2.70 xG 0.38
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
409 Passes 341
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 12
36 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cracovia Krakow at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Cracovia Krakow had 54% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 46%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.70 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cracovia Krakow had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.83 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?

Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cracovia Krakow win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cracovia Krakow 48%, draw 26%, Stal Mielec 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cracovia Krakow), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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