Fluminense 1-0 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Oct 2025

Fluminense
1-0 HT 1-0
Ceara
📅30/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Fluminense vs Ceara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
4.21
6+ Goals
9%
21.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 32% vs market 31.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.02
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
8%
16.85
X/1
20%
3.81
X/2
8%
11.35
X/X
10%
4.7
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
8%
10.45
2/X
8%
19.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-5.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.7pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fluminense v Ceara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 19%
+5% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.58/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.55
-1% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +15%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
407 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 76%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
24.8 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Fluminense vs Ceara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ceara
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.30 xG 1.29
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
461 Passes 253
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.11.2022 Ceara Ceara 0-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
10.07.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
31.10.2021 Ceara Ceara 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
08.07.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 0-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
16.02.2021 Ceara Ceara 1-3 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
18.10.2020 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR1

Fluminense 1-0 Ceara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Ceara
1.12 xG 0.18
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 1
456 Passes 301
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Ceara 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fluminense had 59% of the ball to Ceara's 41%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.12 to 0.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fluminense and 0.83 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Ceara?

Fluminense 1-0 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 55%, draw 25%, Ceara 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →