Stade Malien Bamako 2-1 Simba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 30 Nov 2025

Stade Malien Bamako
2-1 HT 2-0
Simba
📅30/11/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
CAF Champions League – 2025/2026

Stade Malien Bamako vs Simba Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.09
No
63%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.14
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
14%
5.37
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.14 — our 40% vs market 38.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.92
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
16%
5.04
X/2
12%
5.47
X/X
12%
3.8
2/1
10%
35.0
2/2
13%
4.43
2/X
7%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
37%
+6.3pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.0pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.4pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+3.1pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-3.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.7pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stade Malien Bamako v Simba — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Malien Bamako EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Simba EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
252 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Stade Malien Bamako 2-1 Simba — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stade Malien Bamako
2-1
AWAY Simba
2.90 xG 1.22
33% Ball Possession 67%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 0
147 Passes 393
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 30
24 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stade Malien Bamako vs Simba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Malien Bamako squeezed past Simba 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stade Malien Bamako as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stade Malien Bamako had 33% of the ball to Simba's 67%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 2.90 to 1.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stade Malien Bamako's control.

What was the final score of Stade Malien Bamako vs Simba?

Stade Malien Bamako 2-1 Simba in the CAF Champions League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Malien Bamako vs Simba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stade Malien Bamako win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Stade Malien Bamako 44%, draw 25%, Simba 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stade Malien Bamako) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stade Malien Bamako) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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