AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 30 Dec 2024

AFC Wimbledon
1-0 HT 0-0
Gillingham
📅30/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.51
Over 2.5
41%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.13
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
5.21
6+ Goals
6%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.65
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.0
X/1
14%
3.9
X/2 EV+ ✗
13%
8.12
X/X
15%
3.82
2/1
4%
32.0
2/2
13%
7.29
2/X
5%
16.85
Value flag · X/2 at 8.12 — our 13% vs market 8.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.2pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Gillingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
1.45/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.17
+15% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 70%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.9 Crosses 15.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gillingham
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.07 xG 0.87
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
268 Passes 250
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.03.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.11.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
25.02.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
09.08.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-2 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İNLK
30.07.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
22.02.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Gillingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-0
AWAY Gillingham
1.42 xG 0.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 7
253 Passes 209
68% Pass Accuracy 61%
15 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon nicked a narrow win over Gillingham 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AFC Wimbledon as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 52% of the ball to Gillingham's 48%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 1.42 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.83 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham?

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 30/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 44%, draw 26%, Gillingham 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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