Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒18:25 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
34%
3.35
Away
32%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.9
Over 2.5
41%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.9pp
33%
Draw
26%
+7.2pp
32%
Away Win
43%
-11.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.7pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +18%
1.16/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/0.69
-12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +57%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 0-2 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
27.06.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 2-5 HT 0-3 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITA
24.05.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-0 HT 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITK
14.05.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
14.03.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-1 HT 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
26.02.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-1 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
0-1
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
55% Ball Possession 45%
5 Total Shots 2
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius squeezed past Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 33% / 32%) promised a tight game; Zalgiris Vilnius found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kauno Zalgiris had 55% of the ball to Zalgiris Vilnius's 45%, shots finished 5-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 1.50 for Zalgiris Vilnius.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 34%, draw 33%, Zalgiris Vilnius 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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