Buxton vs Alfreton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Buxton v Alfreton Town — Team-Based Signals
Buxton vs Alfreton Town Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Buxton
İCON
0-0
HT 0-0
Alfreton Town
İCON
3-0
HT 1-0
Buxton
İCON
3-0
HT 2-0
Buxton
HAZ
1-4
HT 1-3
Alfreton Town
HAZ
Buxton 1-2 Alfreton Town — Actual Match Statistics
Alfreton Town squeezed past Buxton 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Alfreton Town made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Buxton had 56% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 44%, shots finished 10-6.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Buxton and 2.40 for Alfreton Town.
What was the final score of Buxton vs Alfreton Town?
Buxton 1-2 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Buxton vs Alfreton Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Buxton 36%, draw 28%, Alfreton Town 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.