Brentford 1-3 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 1 Jan 2025

Brentford
1-3 HT 1-1
Arsenal
📅01/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
48%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.38
1/2
5%
21.7
1/X
7%
16.7
X/1
11%
11.15
X/2
16%
3.88
X/X
13%
6.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
1.98
2/X
5%
16.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
19%
+8.9pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.8pp
48%
Away Win
59%
-10.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brentford v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brentford EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 62%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.63/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/0.97
+3% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +24%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 83%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
18.7 Crosses 17.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Brentford vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brentford
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Arsenal
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.52
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
208 Passes 484
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 37
12 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.03.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
25.11.2023 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
27.09.2023 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNLK
11.02.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 1-1 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
18.09.2022 Brentford Brentford 0-3 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
19.02.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP

Brentford 1-3 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brentford
1-3
AWAY Arsenal
0.32 xG 1.87
50% Ball Possession 50%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
399 Passes 388
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 47
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brentford vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal saw off Brentford 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Brentford had 50% of the ball to Arsenal's 50%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.32 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Brentford and 1.67 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Brentford vs Arsenal?

Brentford 1-3 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 01/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brentford vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Brentford 28%, draw 24%, Arsenal 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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