Arsenal 2-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

Arsenal
2-1 HT 1-1
Brentford
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.22
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.51
Over 2.5
60%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.63
2-3 Goals
38%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.63
6+ Goals
15%
6.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.42
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
24.85
X/1
19%
3.49
X/2
5%
22.7
X/X
9%
9.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
2/2
6%
16.9
2/X
5%
24.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
77%
-12.7pp
20%
Draw
14%
+5.4pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Brentford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +2%
2.45/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.91
+21% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +28%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
512 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 70%
45.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.9 Crosses 13.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Arsenal vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Brentford
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.52 xG 1.22
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
488 Passes 222
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
36 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
27.09.2023 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNLK
11.02.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 1-1 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
18.09.2022 Brentford Brentford 0-3 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
19.02.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
13.08.2021 Brentford Brentford 2-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 2-1 Brentford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-1
AWAY Brentford
1.28 xG 0.97
71% Ball Possession 29%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
465 Passes 123
82% Pass Accuracy 54%
48 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal edged past Brentford 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal had 71% of the ball to Brentford's 29%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.28 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Arsenal and 0.67 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Brentford?

Arsenal 2-1 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 65%, draw 20%, Brentford 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5
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İNP More England - Premier League
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