Crystal Palace 1-1 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.53
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.39
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 31% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.34
X/2
13%
7.76
X/X
12%
4.97
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
8%
5.72
2/X
5%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.2pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
1.39/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.84
-2% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 70%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
21.0 Crosses 23.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Luton Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.67 xG 0.94
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
427 Passes 249
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 6
25.11.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
24.02.2007 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 2-1 HT 1-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
09.09.2006 Luton Town Luton Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNCL
26.11.2005 Luton Town Luton Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNCL
06.08.2005 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-2 HT 0-1 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
1-1
AWAY Luton Town
2.73 xG 0.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
345 Passes 339
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace and Luton Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Crystal Palace at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 50% of the ball to Luton Town's 50%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.73 to 0.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Luton Town led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.80 for Luton Town.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Luton Town?

Crystal Palace 1-1 Luton Town in the England - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 45%, draw 28%, Luton Town 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Crystal Palace), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crystal Palace) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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