Ypiranga Erechim 1-1 Novo Hamburgo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Gaucho 1, 1 Feb 2024

📅01/02/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
30%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
Over
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
40%
4-5
21%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
35%
+8.9pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
30%
Away Win
36%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ypiranga Erechim The Market 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Novo Hamburgo The Market 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.29/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/0.85
+48% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ypiranga Erechim
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Novo Hamburgo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2023 Ypiranga Erechim Ypiranga Erechim 3-1 HT 1-0 Novo Hamburgo Novo Hamburgo BRG1
31.01.2022 Novo Hamburgo Novo Hamburgo 1-0 HT 0-0 Ypiranga Erechim Ypiranga Erechim BRG1
04.03.2021 Ypiranga Erechim Ypiranga Erechim 3-3 HT 2-2 Novo Hamburgo Novo Hamburgo BRG1
POST-MATCH Ypiranga Erechim vs Novo Hamburgo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ypiranga Erechim and Novo Hamburgo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ypiranga Erechim at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ypiranga Erechim and 1.67 for Novo Hamburgo.

What was the final score of Ypiranga Erechim vs Novo Hamburgo?

Ypiranga Erechim 1-1 Novo Hamburgo in the Brazil - Gaucho 1 on 01/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ypiranga Erechim vs Novo Hamburgo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ypiranga Erechim win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ypiranga Erechim 44%, draw 26%, Novo Hamburgo 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ypiranga Erechim), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ypiranga Erechim) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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