Pumas UNAM 2-2 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Feb 2024

Pumas UNAM
2-2 HT 1-0
Necaxa
📅01/02/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.22
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 29% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
26%
4.11
X/2
9%
8.95
X/X
12%
5.18
2/1
6%
22.6
2/2
10%
6.67
2/X
7%
14.65
Value flag · X/1 at 4.11 — our 26% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.4pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pumas UNAM v Necaxa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -7%
1.78/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.32
+21% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
353 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 75%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.7 Crosses 17.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Necaxa
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.87 xG 1.22
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
308 Passes 208
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
16 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
16.02.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 3-1 HT 2-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
17.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
20.03.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-3 HT 0-2 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
18.08.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 3-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
10.04.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK

Pumas UNAM 2-2 Necaxa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
2-2
AWAY Necaxa
2.81 xG 0.75
72% Ball Possession 28%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 4
482 Passes 140
87% Pass Accuracy 65%
33 Box Touches 6
30 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM and Necaxa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Pumas UNAM at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 72% of the ball to Necaxa's 28%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 2.81 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.67 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa?

Pumas UNAM 2-2 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 01/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 48%, draw 28%, Necaxa 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
1 Feb 2024
04:00 Pachuca vs Atlas Analysis →