Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 BG Pathum United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nong Bua Pitchaya EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 51%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.23/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.23
-2% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
257 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 82%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
14.5 Crosses 22.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nong Bua Pitchaya
3W-2D-0L
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.08 xG 1.16
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
192 Passes 419
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-1 HT 0-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
05.03.2023 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-3 HT 1-2 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
08.10.2022 Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
22.01.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-1 HT 0-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
17.11.2021 Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 HT 0-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nong Bua Pitchaya
1-1
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.87 xG 0.98
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 6
248 Passes 308
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was BG Pathum United at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Nong Bua Pitchaya had 44% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 56%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.87 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Nong Bua Pitchaya had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.80 for BG Pathum United.

What was the final score of Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?

Before kick-off our model rated an BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nong Bua Pitchaya 29%, draw 25%, BG Pathum United 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BG Pathum United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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