BG Pathum United 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.43
Over 2.5
49%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-13.0pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.9pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+8.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.90/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.89
+42% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
413 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 78%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
24.8 Crosses 9.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.10 xG 0.98
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
409 Passes 176
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.03.2023 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-3 HT 1-2 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
08.10.2022 Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
22.01.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-1 HT 0-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
17.11.2021 Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 HT 0-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
1-1
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.42 xG 1.51
61% Ball Possession 39%
23 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
461 Passes 257
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 14
29 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was BG Pathum United at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 61% of the ball to Nong Bua Pitchaya's 39%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 1.42 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Nong Bua Pitchaya led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for BG Pathum United and 2.00 for Nong Bua Pitchaya.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

BG Pathum United 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya in the Thailand - 1st Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 53%, draw 24%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (BG Pathum United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TAY More Thailand - 1st Division
14 Sep 2024
15:00 Nakhon Ratchasima vs Bangkok United Analysis →