Hertha Berlin 2-2 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 1 Mar 2024

Hertha Berlin
2-2 HT 2-0
Holstein Kiel
📅01/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
13%
7.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.45
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
15%
5.85
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
5.93
X/X
7%
5.43
2/1
5%
24.85
2/2
17%
3.52
2/X
9%
12.25
Value flag · X/2 at 5.93 — our 17% vs market 12.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.7pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hertha Berlin v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 40%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +28%
1.93/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.45
+91% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.6 Crosses 18.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hertha Berlin
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
4.15 xG 1.58
46% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
290 Passes 364
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-3 HT 0-2 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
21.03.2019 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 1-3 HT 1-2 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel HAZ

Hertha Berlin 2-2 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hertha Berlin
2-2
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.78 xG 1.43
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
244 Passes 610
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
23 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hertha Berlin and Holstein Kiel couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 23% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hertha Berlin had 32% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 68%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.78 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hertha Berlin and 2.50 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?

Hertha Berlin 2-2 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Holstein Kiel win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hertha Berlin 37%, draw 23%, Holstein Kiel 40%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Holstein Kiel) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Holstein Kiel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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