Schalke 04 3-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 1 Mar 2024

Schalke 04
3-1 HT 1-0
St. Pauli
📅01/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Schalke 04 vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.42
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 26% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.52
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
17%
7.46
X/2
16%
4.48
X/X
12%
4.64
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.68
2/X
6%
13.25
Value flag · X/1 at 7.46 — our 17% vs market 9.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
28%
+5.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-3.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Schalke 04 v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 49%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.79/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.28
-32% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 77%
37.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
31.1 Crosses 20.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Schalke 04 vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Schalke 04
3W-0D-3L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.85 xG 1.65
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
340 Passes 442
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.10.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-1 HT 0-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AFK
23.09.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 1-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
07.05.2022 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 3-2 HT 0-2 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
04.12.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-1 HT 2-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
01.04.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-2 HT 0-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1
05.11.2010 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 3-0 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1

Schalke 04 3-1 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Schalke 04
3-1
AWAY St. Pauli
1.92 xG 0.34
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
217 Passes 333
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Schalke 04 vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Schalke 04 got the better of St. Pauli 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was St. Pauli at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Schalke 04 had 42% of the ball to St. Pauli's 58%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.92 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.50 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Schalke 04 vs St. Pauli?

Schalke 04 3-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Schalke 04 vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Schalke 04 34%, draw 25%, St. Pauli 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (St. Pauli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5
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