FC Fredericia 2-3 Aalborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
40%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.16
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
23.15
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
13%
7.17
X/2
19%
4.38
X/X
12%
5.31
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
10%
2.63
2/X
7%
14.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.15 — our 11% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+6.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-6.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Fredericia EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalborg EU Bookmakers 50%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
1.05/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.21
+4% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
311 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
12.9 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Fredericia
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Aalborg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.97 xG 1.90
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
379 Passes 489
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 1
26.09.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 2-3 HT 0-1 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAK
06.08.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 4-0 HT 1-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
11.04.2018 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 3-1 HT 3-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Fredericia
2-3
AWAY Aalborg
0.84 xG 2.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
396 Passes 355
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 33
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Fredericia vs Aalborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalborg nicked a narrow win over FC Fredericia 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Aalborg made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, FC Fredericia had 52% of the ball to Aalborg's 48%, shots finished 17-19, expected goals 0.84 to 2.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aalborg's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, FC Fredericia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Fredericia and 2.33 for Aalborg.

What was the final score of FC Fredericia vs Aalborg?

FC Fredericia 2-3 Aalborg in the Denmark 1st Division on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Fredericia vs Aalborg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Fredericia 36%, draw 25%, Aalborg 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aalborg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aalborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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