Caernarfon Town vs Newtown Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Caernarfon Town v Newtown — Team-Based Signals
Caernarfon Town vs Newtown Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 2-0
Caernarfon Town
GAL
2-1
HT 1-0
Newtown
GAL
2-3
HT 1-2
Newtown
GAL
2-1
HT 2-0
Caernarfon Town
GAL
1-0
HT 1-0
Caernarfon Town
GAL
0-4
HT 0-1
Newtown
GAL
Caernarfon Town 1-0 Newtown — Actual Match Statistics
Caernarfon Town edged past Newtown 1-0.
Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Caernarfon Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Caernarfon Town had 51% of the ball to Newtown's 49%, shots finished 13-15.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newtown led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Caernarfon Town and 2.50 for Newtown.
What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Newtown?
Caernarfon Town 1-0 Newtown in the Wales - Premier League on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Newtown?
Before kick-off our model rated an Newtown win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 38%, draw 24%, Newtown 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.