Kawasaki Frontale 4-5 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.25
6+ Goals
12%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.11
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.8
X/1
20%
3.96
X/2
10%
9.99
X/X
11%
5.39
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
8%
7.59
2/X
7%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.8pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
1.78/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.77
+31% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
464 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
15.9 Crosses 17.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.28 xG 0.87
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
560 Passes 335
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.06.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-1 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
06.04.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-1 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
14.09.2019 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-0 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
30.06.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-3 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
01.12.2018 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
25.02.2018 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-3 HT 0-3 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
4-5
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
2.42 xG 2.18
73% Ball Possession 27%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 1
727 Passes 204
87% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kawasaki Frontale vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jubilo Iwata nicked a narrow win over Kawasaki Frontale 5-4 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Kawasaki Frontale at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Kawasaki Frontale had 73% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 27%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.42 to 2.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kawasaki Frontale and 0.67 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of Kawasaki Frontale vs Jubilo Iwata?

Kawasaki Frontale 4-5 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kawasaki Frontale vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kawasaki Frontale 52%, draw 25%, Jubilo Iwata 23%. The final score 4-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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