Yokohama F. Marinos 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.8
6+ Goals
13%
16.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.8 — our 24% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.32
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
17%
3.97
X/2
10%
8.83
X/X
10%
4.73
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
11%
7.07
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.6pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 25%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
2.02/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.11
+26% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +24%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
424 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
19.7 Crosses 18.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.60 xG 0.90
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
528 Passes 228
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-4 HT 0-2 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
28.05.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 HT 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
10.09.2022 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
21.05.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
10.07.2021 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 HT 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
10.03.2021 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-3 HT 0-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos
0-1
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.34 xG 0.89
72% Ball Possession 28%
22 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
671 Passes 211
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
41 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka squeezed past Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Yokohama F. Marinos at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Yokohama F. Marinos had 72% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 28%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 1.34 to 0.89 — the balance of chances actually favoured Yokohama F. Marinos.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yokohama F. Marinos had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Yokohama F. Marinos and 0.33 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Yokohama F. Marinos 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Yokohama F. Marinos win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Yokohama F. Marinos 45%, draw 27%, Avispa Fukuoka 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Yokohama F. Marinos) ✗ BTTS Yes
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