Al Duhail SC 1-4 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.98
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.35
No
43%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.46
2-3 Goals
35%
2.24
4-5 Goals
26%
2.43
6+ Goals
18%
4.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.4pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
70%
-13.1pp
43%
BTTS No
30%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Duhail SC EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +23%
2.32/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/1.79
+37% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +97% / -28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
345 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 77%
36.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
17.1 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Duhail SC
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Al Gharafa
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 2.71
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
393 Passes 298
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.10.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 0-2 Al Duhail SC Al Duhail SC KATYK
24.09.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 3-2 HT 0-1 Al Duhail SC Al Duhail SC KAT
14.04.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-0 HT 0-0 Al Duhail SC Al Duhail SC KAT
04.01.2023 Al Duhail SC Al Duhail SC 3-0 HT 1-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
13.01.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-4 HT 0-1 Al Duhail SC Al Duhail SC KAT
22.09.2021 Al Duhail SC Al Duhail SC 3-1 HT 1-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Duhail SC
1-4
AWAY Al Gharafa
0.57 xG 1.75
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
376 Passes 296
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Duhail SC vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharafa swept aside Al Duhail SC 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Al Duhail SC at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Al Duhail SC had 55% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 45%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.57 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Duhail SC had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Duhail SC and 1.33 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Al Duhail SC vs Al Gharafa?

Al Duhail SC 1-4 Al Gharafa in the Qatar League on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Duhail SC vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Duhail SC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Al Duhail SC 44%, draw 23%, Al Gharafa 33%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Duhail SC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Duhail SC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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