Monarcas Morelia 0-1 Cimarrones de Sonora — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-1.5pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.0pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Cimarrones de Sonora EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.60/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.66
-5% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
427 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cimarrones de Sonora
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
27.09.2023 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 3-2 HT 1-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
08.05.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 1-0 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
05.05.2023 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 1-1 HT 0-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
19.04.2023 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 0-1 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
29.10.2022 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 3-1 HT 3-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
26.10.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-0 HT 1-0 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs Cimarrones de Sonora
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cimarrones de Sonora edged past Monarcas Morelia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Monarcas Morelia at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.17 for Cimarrones de Sonora.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs Cimarrones de Sonora?

Monarcas Morelia 0-1 Cimarrones de Sonora in the Mexico - Primera A on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs Cimarrones de Sonora?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 54%, draw 21%, Cimarrones de Sonora 24%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK2 More Mexico - Primera A
1 Mar 2024
04:05 Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Celaya Analysis →