Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-2 Celaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
57%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.82
Over 2.5
36%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
1.99
No
69%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
5%
X/2
20%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
32%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+7.8pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.2pp
57%
Away Win
61%
-4.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
51%
+13.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
49%
-13.0pp
31%
BTTS Yes
46%
-14.8pp
69%
BTTS No
54%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Celaya EU Bookmakers 66%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +21%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
249 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Celaya
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
20.08.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
10.03.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
10.08.2022 Celaya Celaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
07.01.2022 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
10.09.2021 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Celaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya got the better of Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (69%) came in.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Celaya led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 1.20 for Celaya.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Celaya?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-2 Celaya in the Mexico - Primera A on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Celaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 23%, draw 20%, Celaya 57%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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