Kapfenberger SV 1-1 Sturm Graz II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.47
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.53
No
37%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
27%
2.81
6+ Goals
14%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.78
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.85
1/X
5%
12.75
X/1
8%
6.1
X/2
9%
5.66
X/X
15%
5.42
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
21%
3.37
2/X
10%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.85 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
37%
-5.6pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.5pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.3pp
63%
BTTS Yes
61%
+1.9pp
37%
BTTS No
39%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.46/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/2.08
-1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -40%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
264 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
14.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.0
16.3 Crosses 24.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapfenberger SV
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Sturm Graz II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 1-2 HT 1-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
16.03.2024 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 1-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
27.08.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 3-3 HT 0-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
17.03.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 3-1 HT 2-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
30.10.2022 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 0-1 HT 0-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kapfenberger SV
1-1
AWAY Sturm Graz II
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kapfenberger SV vs Sturm Graz II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kapfenberger SV and Sturm Graz II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (63%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Kapfenberger SV had 56% of the ball to Sturm Graz II's 44%, shots finished 17-6.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Kapfenberger SV had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kapfenberger SV and 1.20 for Sturm Graz II.

What was the final score of Kapfenberger SV vs Sturm Graz II?

Kapfenberger SV 1-1 Sturm Graz II in the Austria - 1st Division on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapfenberger SV vs Sturm Graz II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Kapfenberger SV 31%, draw 30%, Sturm Graz II 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz II), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AU2 More Austria - 1st Division
1 Mar 2025
16:30 Bregenz vs FC Liefering Analysis →