Vitesse 1-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.41
No
51%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
5.33
2-3 Goals
36%
1.97
4-5 Goals
22%
2.51
6+ Goals
12%
5.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.33 — our 30% vs market 13.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.91
1/2
5%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
16%
5.5
X/2
13%
6.9
X/X
13%
6.09
2/1
7%
20.95
2/2
16%
4.11
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+15.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-15.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
67%
-18.1pp
51%
BTTS No
33%
+18.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitesse EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 36%
-45% / -45% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.39/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.60
-33% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
26.9 Crosses 14.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitesse
0W-1D-0L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.53 xG 1.46
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 7
297 Passes 262
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.12.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-2 HT 0-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitesse
1-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.49 xG 1.36
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 9
286 Passes 274
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitesse vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse nicked a narrow win over MVV Maastricht 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Vitesse made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Vitesse had 50% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 50%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.49 to 1.36.

What was the final score of Vitesse vs MVV Maastricht?

Vitesse 1-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitesse vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitesse win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vitesse 39%, draw 27%, MVV Maastricht 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitesse), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitesse) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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