NEC 2-0 Lugazi Municipal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.44
No
57%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
64%
-12.0pp
30%
Draw
23%
+7.2pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+4.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
37%
+6.4pp
57%
BTTS No
63%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 16%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.19/0.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/0.80
-34% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +122%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lugazi Municipal
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
6 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.10.2024 Lugazi Municipal 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC NEC UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC
2-0
AWAY Lugazi Municipal
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NEC vs Lugazi Municipal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC beat Lugazi Municipal 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NEC as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, NEC had 58% of the ball to Lugazi Municipal's 42%, shots finished 15-9.

What was the final score of NEC vs Lugazi Municipal?

NEC 2-0 Lugazi Municipal in the Uganda - Premier League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC vs Lugazi Municipal?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split NEC 52%, draw 30%, Lugazi Municipal 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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