Nairobi United 1-1 TransMara Sugar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 1 Apr 2026

Nairobi United
1-1 HT 0-0
TransMara Sugar
📅01/04/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2025/2026

Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
43%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
35%
-7.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
43%
Away Win
36%
+7.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nairobi United v TransMara Sugar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nairobi United EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.58/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.26
+75% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -32%
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
365 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4

Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nairobi United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY TransMara Sugar
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
The Meetings
01.10.2025 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar 0-1 HT 0-0 Nairobi United Nairobi United KEN

Nairobi United 1-1 TransMara Sugar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nairobi United
1-1
AWAY TransMara Sugar
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nairobi United and TransMara Sugar shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was TransMara Sugar at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nairobi United had 45% of the ball to TransMara Sugar's 55%, shots finished 11-11.

What was the final score of Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar?

Nairobi United 1-1 TransMara Sugar in the Kenya - Premier League on 01/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar?

Before kick-off our model rated an TransMara Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Nairobi United 28%, draw 29%, TransMara Sugar 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (TransMara Sugar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (TransMara Sugar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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