TransMara Sugar 0-1 Nairobi United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 1 Oct 2025

📅01/10/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.2pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Nairobi United EU Bookmakers 29%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+40% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
262 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH TransMara Sugar vs Nairobi United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nairobi United edged past TransMara Sugar 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was TransMara Sugar at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of TransMara Sugar vs Nairobi United?

TransMara Sugar 0-1 Nairobi United in the Kenya - Premier League on 01/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TransMara Sugar vs Nairobi United?

Before kick-off our model rated a TransMara Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split TransMara Sugar 43%, draw 30%, Nairobi United 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (TransMara Sugar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (TransMara Sugar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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