Changchun YaTai 1-1 Shenzhen FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.23
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
14.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.64 — our 27% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.32
1/2
4%
31.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.1
X/1
15%
5.07
X/2
16%
6.05
X/X
10%
4.53
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
10%
4.25
2/X
6%
13.2
Value flag · 1/X at 13.1 — our 12% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.8pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Shenzhen FC EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+71% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 77%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changchun YaTai
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Shenzhen FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.40 xG 0.72
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
334 Passes 394
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2023 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
08.06.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 4-1 HT 3-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
10.12.2022 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-2 HT 0-2 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
30.09.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-0 HT 1-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
29.12.2021 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
16.12.2021 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-1 HT 1-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Changchun YaTai
1-1
AWAY Shenzhen FC
1.75 xG 0.14
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
208 Passes 312
65% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Changchun YaTai vs Shenzhen FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Changchun YaTai and Shenzhen FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Changchun YaTai at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Changchun YaTai had 45% of the ball to Shenzhen FC's 55%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.75 to 0.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Changchun YaTai had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Changchun YaTai and 0.33 for Shenzhen FC.

What was the final score of Changchun YaTai vs Shenzhen FC?

Changchun YaTai 1-1 Shenzhen FC in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changchun YaTai vs Shenzhen FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Changchun YaTai win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Changchun YaTai 42%, draw 28%, Shenzhen FC 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Changchun YaTai), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Changchun YaTai) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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